李小浩,于雪丽.重庆市人口老龄化对住宅市场的影响分析[J].重庆文理学院学报,2020,39(2):16-23.
重庆市人口老龄化对住宅市场的影响分析
Study on the Impact of Population Aging on the Housing Market in Chongqing
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  重庆市  人口老龄化  住宅市场
英文关键词:Chongqing  population aging  housing market
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“中国房地产长效机制构建及与短期调控协同发展研究”(18BJY064)
作者单位
李小浩 武汉市工程咨询部 湖北 武汉 430014 
于雪丽 重庆市国土资源和房屋勘测规划院 重庆 江北 400020 
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中文摘要:
      城市人口的数量、结构以及变化趋势均会对房地产市场特别是住宅市场产生直接或间接的影响。重庆市已进入老龄化社会,且具有以下四类特征:一是老龄人口数量大,老龄化程度高;二是老龄人口增长过快,赡养负担持续加重;三是未富先老和空巢化问题突出;四是人口老龄化区域差异明显。通过建立双对数线性回归模型发现,65岁及以上人口每增加1%将会导致住宅投资额增加1.93个百分点。研究结果表明,人口老龄化将会推动重庆市住宅市场向新的层面继续发展。
英文摘要:
      The quantity, structure and variation trend of urban population all will have direct or indirect effects on the real estate market, especially the housing market. Chongqing has entered into the aging society, which has four characteristics as follows. Firstly, the aging population has large number and deep level. Secondly, the aging population grows rapidly, and the dependency burden continues to increase. Thirdly, the problem of getting old before getting rich and the empty-nested is outstanding. Fourthly, the regional difference of aging population is obvious. By establishing double logarithmic linear regression model, the study finds that every 1% increase of the population of aged 65 and over would lead to 1.93% increase of the residential investment. The study results show that population aging would promote the development of Chongqing’s housing market at a new level.
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