中国服务贸易的出口潜力再估计—基于APEC成员国数据引力模型的实证分析
Estimation of Chinese Potential for Export in Service and International Comparison——Based on Cross-sectional Data Analysis of Gravity Model
投稿时间:2013-05-15  修订日期:2013-05-15
DOI:
中文关键词:  服务贸易;出口潜力;APEC;引力模型
英文关键词:Trade in Service;Gravity Model;Export Potential;APEC
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
作者单位E-mail
刘玉飞 南京财经大学 liuyufeiyaojiayou@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      以引力模型为基础,以包含中国在内的APEC成员国的实际情况为样本,建立面板数据模型,在总结分析相关文献的基础上,得到影响中国服务出口贸易的五个指标,预测了中国对世界服务贸易总额的出口潜力,并与美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、加拿大和新加坡等国作了相应比较,结果表明:我国贸易总体上发挥了潜力,但是相对于货物贸易来说,服务贸易出口严重“不足”。从时间层面来看,从2000-2007年出口“不足”程度逐年降低,但是2008年金融危机后,服务贸易出口下降,“不足”程度加深,到2010年“不足”程度有减轻的趋势。此外,与其他较发达国家相比,服务贸易出口还有很大的差距。因而,在实行出口时,应更多地考虑附加值较高的服务贸易而非在价值链低端的货物贸易。
英文摘要:
      Based on the gravity model and combination of the actual situation of China with other APEC members , this article creates a panel data model, and obtains that the impacts of GDP per capita,population,multilateral market openness,service trade structure,services openness et al on services exports,forecasts China"s export potential of total in services trade and compares it with that of the America,Japan , Korea,Russia, Australia, Canada and Singapore .The result shows that:China"s total trade is over performance. However, compared to trade in merchandise goods, the export trade in service is inadequate . From the perspective of time, China’s trade in services exports is increasing from 2000 to 2007, but after the global financial crisis, trade in services exports declined, the is in a deeper level, and in 2010, China’s service trade is recovering. Compared with other developed countries, there is a certain gap. Fortunately, the global financial crisis has only did litter to China"s service trade.Therefore, the export trade policy should be focus more on service trade.
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